Five Week 13 Matchups to Monitor (2025 Fantasy Football)
Corbin Young examines five more Week 13 matchups to monitor for 2025 fantasy football.
Extra days off with the holidy meant I tried to put out more written content. There’s a balance, even if it’s 80% work and 20% rest or however it shakes out, to take time for yourself and your family. That said, here’s the final article for Week 13 covering five more matchups to monitor heading into the week.
Week 13 Fantasy Football Articles:
Week 12 Running Back Advanced Stats (paid subscription required)
Colts’ OL vs. Texans’ DL
The Texans’ defensive line allows the eighth-fewest adjusted yards before contact per attempt (YBC/Att). Meanwhile, the Colts’ offensive line has been the third-best in adjusted YBC/Att, helping Jonathan Taylor to average the most rush yards over expected per attempt (RYOE/Att). The Texans’ run defense has allowed the 28th-most rushing yards per game while stacking the box at the eighth-highest rate.
Interestingly, opposing defenses haven’t been stacking the box against Taylor, ranking 32nd out of 48 qualified running backs. When teams stack the box against Taylor, he ranks seventh in EPA per rush attempt, 29th in RYOE/Att, and 11th in rushing success rate. Taylor ranks fourth in EPA per rush attempt, second in RYOE/Att, and 15th in rushing success rate when opposing defenses don’t stack the box with eight or more defenders.
The Texans have one of the best defensive lines, headlined by Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. They rank second in team pressure grades while bringing the 16th-highest pressure rate heading into Week 13. Furthermore, the Texans’ defense generates pressure at the fifth-fastest rate. It’s strength against strength because the Colts’ offensive line limits pressure at the eighth-lowest rate.
When Daniel Jones has been pressured, he ranks fourth in adjusted yards per attempt, 15th in completion rate over expected (CPOE), and ninth in catchable pass rate. His 15.4% pressure-to-sack rate ranks 17th, though we’ll see how his mobility fares with a report that he is dealing with a fracture in his fibula. The beat reports indicate Jones will play through it.
Against pressure, Jones looks toward Tyler Warren (27.9%) and Josh Downs (27.8%) as his first-read target. Warren’s 1.79 yards per route run and Downs’s 1.51 remain the only two pass catchers with a yards per route run over 1.00 when Jones faces pressure. Michael Pittman (15.5%) and Alec Pierce (20%) tend to be the third and fourth options in first-read target share, but haven’t been producing well.
Jaguars’ Rush Offense vs. Titans’ Rush Defense
Last week, some thought it was Bhayshul Tuten’s time to take over a career-high 15 opportunities in Week 11. However, Travis Etienne remained the top Jaguars’ running back, logging 65% of the snaps, 54% of the team’s rush attempts, and a 13% target share in Week 12. Tuten’s snap share fell back to 21% with a 25% rush share in Week 12. He had 32% in each category during Week 11.
The Jaguars’ offensive line generates the seventh-highest adjusted YBC/Att while facing a Titans’ defensive line allowing the third-most adjusted YBC/Att. That should bode well for Etienne and the Jaguars’ rushing attack in Week 13. The Titans’ run defense stacks the box at the 12th-highest rate while allowing the third-most RYOE/Att.
Interestingly, Etienne ranks fourth in RYOE/Att (+1.9) and sixth in rushing success rate (50%) when going against stacked boxes. Tuten doesn’t qualify, but he averages +0.1 RYOE/Att and a 52.4% rushing success rate when facing stacked boxes. It looks like a smash spot for Etienne in Week 13, though an AFC South matchup might make it an above-average matchup instead of an automatic layup.
Sam Darnold Pressure Cooker
The Vikings’ defensive line brings the highest pressure rate, with the Seahawks’ offensive line limiting pressure (No. 29), fourth best. Brian Flores knows Sam Darnold and plans to make him uncomfortable. The Vikings pressure the quarterback at the ninth-fastest rate while blitzing 45.6% of the time (No. 1), five percentage points more than the Falcons.
When pressured, Darnold ranks eighth in adjusted yards per attempt and 11th in CPOE, yet 31st in catchable pass rate. Thankfully, Darnold has been avoiding sacks, with an 11.7% pressure-to-sack rate, the 11th-lowest mark among quarterbacks with 25 dropbacks. It’s unsurprising, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba remains Darnold’s top target when pressured.
Smith-Njigba garners a 50% first-read target share, 40.3% air yards share, and 3.17 yards per route run when Darnold faces pressure. Cooper Kupp (16%) and AJ Barner (17%) have similar target per route rates, with Kupp being second on the team in first-read target share. The Vikings’ pass defense deploys two-high looks at the highest rate while allowing the 12th-most fantasy points per dropback.
When facing two-high looks, Smith-Njigba leads the team with a 55.4% first-read target share while being targeted on 42% of his routes and averaging 5.23 yards per route. He ranks second in first-read target share, first in air yards share, first in target rate, and first in yards per route run against two-high coverages, as seen below.
Broncos’ Deep Passing Offense
The Broncs’ passing offense faces a Commanders’ pass defense that allows the fifth-most fantasy points per dropback on deep passes of 20 or more yards. The Commanders’ pass defense deploys man coverage at the ninth-highest rate while allowing the 17th-most fantasy points per dropback. With Trey Amos and Marshon Lattimore on injured reserve and Mike Sainristil struggling, we would expect them to adjust their coverage tendencies.
Courtland Sutton is second on the team in yards per route run (3.25) against man coverage, behind Marvin Mims (4.09). However, Mims has run half the routes of Sutton against man coverage. Troy Franklin tends to struggle versus man coverage in yards per route run (1.19) while leading the team with targets on 37% of his routes versus man. The usage has been trending toward Franklin operating as the team’s WR1, averaging 15.1 expected fantasy points per game in Weeks 9-12, compared to Sutton at 9.8.
It’s worth noting that Franklin’s 12.5 EP/G was similar to Sutton’s 12 in Weeks 1-8, showing how Franklin saw the gap widen in recent weeks. Since the Commanders’ pass defense struggles against deep passes, let’s highlight Franklin and Sutton. Franklin leads the team with a 37.5% first-read target share, 51% target rate, and 3.63 yards per route run. Meanwhile, Sutton remains the only other Broncos’ pass catcher with 25 routes on deep passes. Sutton averages a 22.5% first-read target share, 24% target rate, and 3.07 yards per route run.
Based on Franklin’s Yards Per Target Over Expected (YPTOE) and expected fantasy points per route run, there should be regression in his favor. Bo Nix contributed to the inefficiency. He has the 21st-highest CPOE (-4%) and 22nd in EPA per dropback on deep passes. The matchup against the Commanders is too juicy to pass up for Franklin and Sutton.
Steelers’ OL vs. Bills’ DL
The Bills’ defensive line has been beatable on the ground, allowing the fifth-most adjusted YBC/Att. What’s wilder is the fact that the Bills’ run defense allows the most yards after contact per attempt (YAC/Att) and the second-most rush attempts of 10 or more yards. That shows the Bills’ run defense struggles to defend the run, gives up big plays in the second level, and struggles to tackle opposing rushers.
They face a Steelers’ offensive line, ranking 23rd in adjusted YBC/Att, suggesting they struggle to run block for Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell. The Steelers’ rushing offense has the seventh-highest YAC/Att, yet they only have 25 attempts of 10 or more yards (No. 28). Since Week 9, the Steelers rank 17th in neutral-script pass rate, not far from their season-long average.
The Bills’ run defense stacks the box at the 20th-highest rate. When the Steelers’ running backs face stacked boxes, Gainwell holds a slight edge in RYOE/Att (No. 12) compared to Warren (No. 16). Both have been efficient rushers against stacked boxes while fighting for yards after contact. Warren ranks third in YAC/Att with Gainwell at fifth versus stacked boxes, suggesting the Week 13 matchup against the Bills should be fruitful for the Steelers’ run game. It probably helps that the Steelers’ offense uses 13-Personnel at the second-highest rate (16.8%), behind the Rams (17.9%) and ahead of the Colts (12%) as the three teams using it at 10% or more.