Starting Pitcher Notes (April 11): Emmet Sheehan's velocity uptick, Edward Cabrera's bumps, and Janson Junk's stuff increase
Corbin Young examines Emmet Sheehan, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Ashcraft, and Janson Junk's outing on Saturday, April 11th for 2026 fantasy baseball purposes.
Emmet Sheehan, SP, Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers’ starting pitcher Emmet Sheehan was one of my top breakout candidates. Unfortunately, Sheehan’s fastball velocity was down 1 mph, coinciding with struggles through his first two outings before Saturday.
🆙Sheehan’s velocity increased in Saturday’s start against the Rangers. His four-seam (+1.3 mph), changeup (+1.6 mph), and curveball (+1.7 mph) were up over 1 mph. Sheehan maintained the velocity throughout most of the outing, except for the 5th and 6th innings.
✍️Sheehan was efficient with a 20.8% swinging-strike rate and 35% ball rate on 77 pitches. That’s similar to his career ball rate (36%) and swinging-strike rate (14.9%).
🛝The slider generated the 2nd-most whiffs (11) of his career, finding success low/inside to left-handed hitters and low/away to right-handed hitters on Saturday. Sheehan threw his slider in the zone a lowly 19% of the time on Saturday, with hitters chasing them 62% of the time. That’s drastically different than Sheehan’s slider zone rate at 49% and 35% chase rate early in 2026.
Hopefully, this is a step in the right direction for Sheehan.
Braxton Ashcraft, SP, Pirates
This was the best game from a whiff standpoint for Pittsburgh Pirates’ starting pitcher Braxton Ashcraft. He had a 20.8% swinging-strike rate and 35% ball rate on Saturday against the Cubs. That was significantly better than Ashcraft’s career swinging-strike rate (11.8%).
🪝Ashcraft found success via the curveball (22.2% SwK) and slider (55.5% SwK), low/inside to lefties and low/away from right-handed hitters on Saturday. The curveball possesses an above-average movement profile, but he might need to command the slider well to find consistency.
⏩He was peppering the four-seam at the top of the zone while maintaining his 16 inches of induced vertical break. However, it’s worth noting that Ashcraft’s four-seam added 2 inches of arm-side fade on Saturday, potentially helping to generate weak contact, especially against left-handed hitters, to whom he throws them most often.
Ashcraft’s curveball has been his best from a stuff standpoint (124 Stuff+), and the four-seam locations have been better in 2026 (109 Location+). Let’s see if Ashcraft can build upon this outing.
Edward Cabrera, SP, Cubs
The early-season skills haven’t supported the Chicago Cubs’ starting pitcher Edward Cabrera, with a 43% ball rate and 13% swinging-strike rate before Saturday’s outing. Cabrera had a 37% ball rate and 11.2% swinging-strike rate against the Pirates on Saturday.
⚾️After Cabrera was somewhat ditching the four-seamer in 2025 (16.1%), he started throwing it more against lefties (24.3%) in 2026. Meanwhile, Cabrera’s most significant four-seam usage change came via right-handed hitters. That’s evident in Cabrera’s four-seam usage at 22.7% in 2026 compared to 9.2% in 2025 against righties.
➡️The changeup, four-seam, and sinker added 2 inches of arm-side fade on Saturday, with changeups low/arm-side and the fastballs along the outside edges of the zone. Interestingly, Cabrera commands his changeup well (111 Location+ in 2026), yet has a 94 career Stuff+. That’s likely because Cabrera throws from a low arm angle, and the changeup generates plenty of arm-side movement (17-18 inches).
Cabrera has been fortunate early in 2026 before Saturday. We might need to be patient with Cabrera since he possesses tons of upside, though it will be a bumpy ride.
Janson Junk, SP, Marlins
Miami Marlins’ starting pitcher Janson Junk was a top two-start pitcher option. Junk’s velocity was over 1.5 mph on multiple pitches, including the four-seam (-2.1 mph), slider (-2 mph), changeup (-1.7 mph), and curveball (-2.5 mph) on Saturday in Detroit, with the weather in the 50s.
🌬️That aligned with Junk posting a 9.1% swinging-strike rate and a 35% ball rate on Saturday. For context, Junk had an 11.4% swinging-strike rate and a 35% ball rate in 2026.
📈Junk was one of the Stuff+ risers in 2026 (106 Stuff+ before Sat), increasing by 10 points compared to 2025. That supported a 2.5-point increase in swinging-strike rate in 2026. However, Junk’s swinging-strike rate went from awful to league average.
🪙Junk’s changeup added over 5 inches of downward movement and 2.5 inches of arm-side fade. That aligned with Junk’s changeup, eliciting a career-high 24.3% swinging-strike rate and potentially weak contact.
🧹Besides Junk’s changeup, his sweeper has a drastically different movement profile, with a 2 mph drop in velocity and around 6 inches more of glove-side sweep. The sweeper typically resulted in weak contact against right-handed hitters, evidenced by a .218 wOBA (.270 xwOBA) in 2026 and .141 wOBA (.235 xwOBA) in 2025.
Junk typically relied upon command, but there might be a new level to unlock if he sustains his stuff gains in 2026.