Week 9 Early Advanced Stats (2025 Fantasy Football)
Corbin Young examines the early fantasy football advanced stats from Week 9.
Week 9 had upsets from the Steelers and Panthers, with uber-exciting games between the Bears and Bengals, though Rome Odunze had zero fantasy points on three targets. The most significant injuries from Week 9 involved Tucker Kraft and Jayden Daniels, with several other notable players leaving the game. That list includes Puka Nacua (chest), Brian Thomas Jr. (ankle), C.J. Stroud (concussion), Aaron Jones (shoulder), Kayshon Boutte (hamstring), Matthew Golden (shoulder), Cole Kmet (concussion), and many more.
As usual, we’ll examine the passing, rushing, and receiving advanced stats from Week 9 to quickly review the weekly data before the deeper advanced metrics come out.
Passing Advanced Stats
Five quarterbacks averaged over 10 intended air yards per attempt in Week 9, including Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, Justin Herbert, J.J. McCarthy, and Matthew Stafford. Stafford was the third-highest overperformer in actual completion versus expected completion rate. Besides being one of the best passers, Stafford plays with two elite receivers. Mahomes and Nix faced tough challenges in Week 9, completing under 50% of their pass attempts while airing it out downfield.
The Texans’ pass defense kept the Broncos’ top receivers in check, with Courtland Sutton having the second-most receiving yards (6-1-30-1 TD), slightly ahead of Troy Franklin (10-4-27), who led the team in targets (10). When RJ Harvey, the backup running back, leads the team in receiving yards, that’s usually a telling sign.
The Bills felt like they were dominating the game by being efficient on offense, especially on third downs (7/12), compared to the Chiefs. For context, the Chiefs only converted three of their 13 third-down attempts in Week 9. Mahomes had 52% (130) of his passing yards, 20 or more yards downfield against the Bills, so maybe they were baiting them into taking shots.
McCarthy trusted Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. That’s evident in McCarthy rocking the highest percentage of aggressive pass plays (28%), meaning a defender was within one yard of the reception or target. However, the Vikings leaned on their run game, accounting for 53.7% of their offensive plays. Hopefully, we see a bit more efficiency from McCarthy as he becomes more comfortable and gains more reps.
Slightly farther down the intended air yards leaderboard, let’s highlight Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr., and Tyler Shough. Maye continues to thrive with one of the most underwhelming receiving groups, besides Stefon Diggs. Unfortunately, their deep threat, Kayshon Boutte, left early with a hamstring injury. I discussed Boutte as a potential sleeper in Week 9 because the Falcons’ pass defense was susceptible to deep passes.
However, DeMario Douglas took over as the leading receiver, posting a career-best 100 receiving yards on four receptions (six targets) and one touchdown. Put Douglas on the watch list in deep leagues, since he might be a viable option if Boutte misses time. Penix hyper-targeted Drake London (14) and Bijan Robinson (10) in Week 9, accounting for 65% of his pass attempts against the Patriots. Not only did Penix air it out to London, but he also made aggressive throws (27%) in tight coverage to his top pass catcher, who made multiple contested catches.
For context, Penix had the second-highest aggressive pass percentage behind McCarthy in Week 9. That’s notable because Penix might want to trust London, Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, and Robinson more often, attempting to make more aggressive passes than his season-long average (13.8%). Let’s hope Penix does that more often, or it might be a one-off performance against a Patriots’ pass defense that runs a high rate of man coverage.
The box score won’t tell you a good story, but Shough made a few nice plays, scrambling away from pressure to make plays through the air. We could say the same about Spencer Rattler. There might be more play-action passing plays available for the Saints if they can generate more positive yards on the ground, though the Rams dominated the time of possession, nearly 44 minutes.
Sam Darnold was cooking on Sunday Night Football and shredding the Commanders’ pass defense. I discussed this in the Sunday Night Football Matchup Preview. The Commanders were allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per dropback on deep passes against zone coverage. You can see part of the write-up below.
Darnold had the highest difference in his actual completion rate compared to his expected completion rate in Week 9 while throwing aggressive passes 25% of the time. He was trusting Jaxon Smith-Njigba and rookie Tory Horton, who scored two touchdowns on his four receptions. Horton expected to see more targets with Cooper Kupp out, and he delivered. Expect Horton to be a top waiver wire pickup at the receiver position, though Smith-Njigba dominates the target volume.
It’s rare for the data to align with how the game shakes out, but the Seahawks followed the game plan and attacked the deep areas of the Commanders’ pass defense. They repeatedly exploited the Commanders’ pass defense, and the Commanders struggled to defend them.
Joe Flacco and Jordan Love had an actual completion rate that was five percentage points above their expected completion rate, meaning they were more efficient passers. Flacco was making aggressive passes and trusting Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins multiple times in one of the funnest games of the season between the Bengals and Bears. This is the second game in a row where the Bengals looked like they might hang onto a tight win, but lost.
Higgins and Chase were uber-efficient, with Higgins scoring twice. Meanwhile, Flacco targeted Chase Brown 14 times, a career-high, with seven more targets for Andrei Iosivas, second-highest total in his career. Flacco can be super fun for the Bengals’ pass catchers, and let’s see how long this lasts.
Rushing Advanced Stats
I was messaging a friend on Sunday about not overreacting to players with boom performances against the Bengals. That goes for Kyle Monangai, with the most rushing yards (176) and the highest rush yards over expected per attempt (RYOE/Att) at 2.47 in Week 9 against the Bengals. Monangai gave us a boom performance with D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson out in one of the friendliest matchups, since the Bengals’ run defense allowed the fourth-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt.
Monangai delivered in an awesome matchup, and he might eat into Swift’s role a bit more than in previous weeks. The Bears boasted the 10th-highest neutral game script rush percentage, a drastic change since their bye week. That bodes well for Swift and Monangai moving forward.
The Bengals stacked the box at the fifth-lowest rate in Week 9, and Monangai took advantage of that. Interestingly, Swift has the fourth-lowest stacked box percentage (17%), with Monangai (17.7%) close behind, suggesting that opposing defenses need to respect their pass catchers, since they have multiple that can beat them.
Derrick Henry, Rico Dowdle, Tony Pollard, and De’Von Achane averaged over one RYOE/Att in Week 9. Pollard and Achane were the only two rushers with over one RYOE/Att without 100 yards rushing. It must’ve been really windy because the buy-low window on Dowdle closed after posting his third game with over 100 rushing yards in 2025. For context, Dowdle had four games with over 100 yards in 2024. It appears that Dowdle has taken over the Panthers’ backfield, with Chuba Hubbard having only five carries for 17 rushing yards.
Somehow, the Titans were in the game against the Chargers, and Pollard wasn’t game-scripted out. Pollard averaged over one RYOE/Att in Week 9, significantly better than the season-long average of 0.03, while being the 13th-most inefficient rusher, who struggled to move the ball forward. That’s notable because Pollard faced the eighth-lowest stacked box rate, and he still struggled to be an efficient rusher.
The Chargers needed a fourth-quarter touchdown to win, but outgained the Titans by nearly 140 yards. Guess that’s what happens when the Titans score two defense and special teams touchdowns via a pick-six and a 67-yard punt return by Chimere Dike in the first quarter. Hopefully, you all play in leagues that count return yards because Dike had 215 kick and punt return yards and only five receiving yards on one reception.
Among the 12 rushers who faced stacked boxes 30% or more, only four averaged over 1.00 RYOE/Att. That list includes Henry, Pollard, Achane, and Dowdle, making it quite impressive that they were efficient rushers based on their situation. Meanwhile, Jordan Mason, Kimani Vidal, Chase Brown, Nick Chubb, Terrell Jennings, and Kenneth Walker III produced under 50 rushing yards. Brown was an outlier since Flacco peppered him with a team-high target total in Week 9.
With Mason, the Lions' defense likely teased the Vikings to throw the ball, yet they swarmed the run game, especially after Aaron Jones left. Regarding Vidal, opposing defenses have been stacking the box against him, though he produced efficiently in Week 8 against the Vikings. For context, Vidal rushed for 124 yards in Week 6, while facing the fourth-highest stacked box rate (44.4%). He also faced the fifth-highest stacked box rate in Week 8, yet rushed for 117 yards.
That’s a bit worrisome that Vidal struggled against the Titans’ run defense because they allowed the second-most adjusted YBC/Att heading into Week 9. Unfortunately, Joe Alt left the game with a high ankle sprain, and it might be an uphill battle again for Vidal to be efficient while facing a high rate of stacked boxes. Keep the faith in Vidal because he typically leads the backfield in volume.
Jennings faced a high rate of stacked boxes in Week 9 without Rhamondre Stevenson. TreVeyon Henderson was efficient on a couple of outside and inside runs, which might bode well for future confidence in him when Stevenson returns. As expected, Henderson (42.4%) shared the backfield with Jennings (33.3%), yet Henderson tied for the team lead in targets (6) for a 20.7% target share in Week 9. Jennings could be a deep-league waiver target, though there’s limited upside.
Receiving Advanced Stats
Four of the 13 pass catchers garnering a 40% air yards share or higher produced fewer than 75 yards in Week 9. That list includes Tetairoa McMillan, Rashid Shaheed, Troy Franklin, and Darius Slayton. Meanwhile, Brock Bowers and London scored three touchdowns and produced over 100 receiving yards, making them highly-drafted week-winning options.
McMillan and Shaheed have quarterback issues, though Dowdle was the focal point of the Panthers’ offense in Week 9. Franklin faced a difficult matchup while leading the team in targets, and Slayton’s production will be volatile without a high-end target earner, beyond Wan’Dale Robinson to an extent.
Among the pass catchers with a 40% air yards share in Week 9, Alec Pierce, Bowers, Douglas, Smith-Njigba, and Dalton Kincaid generated four or more yards after the catch per reception. That’s a rare combination to have pass catchers garner downfield targets and create yards after the catch. Unsurprisingly, these players had spike performances in Week 9. Pierce, Douglas, and Kincaid teased us at times, though Douglas might be the outlier with the inconsistent usage.
We can’t close out the Week 9 advanced stats piece without discussing Colston Loveland, who had a breakout game against the Bengals. Loveland tied Sam LaPorta for 10 yards after the catch per reception (YAC/Rec) while producing the second-most YAC/Rec compared to Loveland’s expected YAC/Rec. Tons of Loveland’s YAC/Rec (36 yards after the catch) came on his game-winning touchdown reception, where the Bengals’ defenders bounced off him in the middle of the field and allowed him to score.
Cole Kmet left the game with a concussion. That’s notable because the Bears had been trusting Kmet more early in the season. However, there’s a slim chance Ben Johnson and the Bears’ offense can go away from Loveland after showing us what a spike performance can look like. The only sobering note is that Loveland faced the Bengals’ awful pass defense.